The new strategic thinking in the Israeli government is motivated, among other things, by a new awareness of demographic issues, and from estimations that in 2006 the Palestinians will be the majority population in Mandatory Palestine, between the sea and the Jordan River. According to this viewpoint, the Palestinian population continues to grow at a pace of 3 percent a year, while the Jewish population is growing at a slower pace, currently 2 percent a year. Thus the proportion of the Jewish population will continue to decline to 40 percent in the year 2020. According to those who hold this perspective, this will mean a death sentence for Israel as a Jewish-Zionist and democratic state. Yasser Arafat’s speech in July 1987, in which he likened the Palestinian woman to a ‘biological bomb’ only served to exacerbate this feeling. In other words, demographic considerations, which recruit women’s uteruses to the national conflict moved to the front of the public debate.

Scholars like Sofer1 conclude, based on this analysis, that Israel should pre-emptively withdraw from large portions of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip that are heavily populated, and barricade itself behind walls and fences. This type of separation will protect Israel from existential dangers like becoming a minority of the population; terror; a flood of Palestinian migrant labourers; demands from migrant labourers for residence status based on the right of return; crime; and influences upon the Arab-Israeli population.

The security forces will have to develop appropriate defence mechanisms in order to provide protection from the persistent Islamic threat, which will be fuelled by the inability of the Palestinians to ensure the minimal standard of living for a quickly growing population. According to Sofer’s conclusions, Israel’s policies must ensure that the unavoidable Palestinian demographic explosion will be directed towards either Jordan or Egypt.

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