Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has provided no evidence to back his recent claim that the Palestinians were planning “bloodshed and violence the like of which we have never seen” in September as they push for UN recognition of an independent state. But when Lieberman said he feared the Palestinians could organize marches to coincide with the UN General Assembly in September, he was right. Palestinian leaders have drawn up a plan to stage rallies that would boost their drive for UN recognition. How the Palestinian plan differs from Lieberman's prediction is that the demonstrations will be peaceful. The plan allows for marches and rallies inside West Bank cities, but confines them to city limits. Demonstrators will be kept away from flashpoints like Jewish settlements and military checkpoints. Palestinian police would ring West Bank cities to keep protesters far from Israelis.
The plan also includes preventing mass charges on Israeli border points, as what happened in May when thousands of Palestinians crashed across from Syria into the occupied Golan Heights, resulting in Israeli soldiers shooting more than a dozen dead. Similar demonstrations erupted in Lebanon, home to large Palestinian refugee camps.
Palestinians adopted the UN recognition tactic and rallies because they have lost faith in peace talks with Israel. Those negotiations have been frozen for most of the past three years and there is no sign the two sides can agree on conditions to resume them. Israel opposes the UN recognition drive and insists, along with the US and several key European countries, that the only way to set up a Palestinian state is through negotiations.
According to Lieberman, the Palestinians must understand that there is a price to be paid for going it alone. His warning that he would ask ministerial colleagues to back him in seeking to sever cooperation with the Palestinian Authority should be taken seriously. Any PA bid for statehood could be met with revocation of the Oslo Accords, and with them the nexus of security, financial and political ties that govern Palestinian-Israeli relations.
A crisis with Washington at the UN might incur not only a veto but a threat by the US Congress to cut $500 million in aid to the PA that last month could only pay half salaries to its 150,000 employees.
Palestinians fear that material punishment will put their house in disarray but Israelis are concerned about something more serious: Possible violence. True, the Palestinians vow to keep things as calm as possible come September but cannot give 100 percent guarantees. Things could get ugly and out of control. A single incident — a Palestinian throwing a firebomb or an Israeli soldier killing a demonstrator — could trigger a widespread eruption.
The bigger worry is the uprisings, wars and revolutions collectively known as the Arab Spring. Any decision taken or not taken by Palestinians and Israelis in September may have a huge impact not only on the Palestinian conflict with Israel but on a region already on fire.
We discourage violence but Israel must realize these current uprisings came after decades of tolerance by Arab peoples who could ultimately wait no longer. This would apply to Palestinians who, after 20 years of negotiations, 44 years of occupation and 63 years of exile, believe the time has come.
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