It all depends on whether one is an optimist or a pessimist to argue whether there will be, as promised, an "outline" for a fair conclusion to the slow-moving peace talks between the Palestinians and Israelis before President George W. Bush leaves his office at the White House in six month's time.
For a start, the belated talks have been plagued by the presence at the helm of three weak leaders in Palestine, Israel and the United States, all approaching their last days in office.
The embarrassing record of Ehud Olmert, the discredited Israeli prime minister, who has just announced he would not seek re-election in his Kadima party's internal election in six weeks' time, in effect an admission of his guilt in the bribery charges against him, has raised many questions about his real motives. (Three of the last four former Israeli prime ministers were likewise under investigation for corruption upon leaving office.).
Although the Israeli prime minister may deserve some credit for pursuing the negotiations with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, the record of his administration in mistreating Palestinians has been disgraceful. The continued siege of the Gaza Strip; the strip-searches that Palestinians, male and female, are exposed to; the refusal to give building permits to Arab residents in occupied East Jerusalem - last year more than 1,000 demolition orders for "illegal dwellings" have been issued; the expansion in Israeli colonies and the growing number of West Bank roads confined to Israeli traffic; and the construction of a "separation wall" on Palestinian land are only but a few of the examples that Palestinians give for the recent incidents as such those that took place in occupied Jerusalem when two Palestinian-driven bulldozers plowed into Israeli traffic.
Shocking
More shocking has been this week's report from Physicians for Human Rights in Israel which revealed that Gazans seeking medical treatment abroad have been pressured by Israeli security services to work as informers in violation of international law. The group declared that such tactics violated international law, citing the Fourth Geneva Convention, which explicitly prohibited coercing civilians into providing intelligence information.
The likely successor of Olmert, that is if a successor is elected next month (or else he may stay in office for several more months beyond the election of a new Kadima party leader), is his foreign minister, Tzipi Livni. However, Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz, a former army chief of staff, is a strong rival. But if Olmert's party is split should Mofaz wins, or the ruling coalition disintegrates, the national election will take place next spring; again allowing Olmert to hang on. Benjamin Netanyahu, the leader of the right-wing Likud Party, is then favoured to win that election - a disastrous turnaround for any peacemaker.
On the other side, the bloody and deplorable in-fighting among the rival Palestinian factions - the Islamist Hamas and the secular Fatah, especially last week's clash in Gaza which led some of Abbas's supporter to seek refuge in Israel - have embarrassed many a Palestinian. "At the end of the day, everybody - we Palestinians - have lost, but Hamas has won," Eyad Sarraj, the Gaza commissioner of the Palestinian Independent Human Rights Committee, commented wryly.
Hanan Ashrawi, a prominent Palestinian legislator who participated in earlier peace talks with Israel, lamented the state of Palestinian affairs - "highly dangerous" and "difficult to resolve between the two movements". In other words, the Egyptian-sponsored unity talks may not see the light of day.
As far as the US is concerned, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice remains surprisingly hopeful. She is reported to be eager to present a "diplomatic achievement" before the UN General Assembly's annual meeting in New York next month. "There is still time for them, in accordance with the Annapolis [decision], to reach agreement by the end of the year and we will keep working for that goal."
This Middle East mirage will not vanish until some realism is injected all around. Weak leaders are incapable of bringing about solid results. Although the recent bilateral negotiations among the region's warring parties have been uplifting, the results still need the endorsement of bigger sponsors, the United States and Europe, for example.
In a moment of great abandon, Olmert had touched upon this much-needed realism in his off-the-cuff remarks in Washington on June 9, 2005 as revealed this week by the Israel Policy Forum's M. J. Rosenberg, who quoted him saying: "We are tired of fighting, we are tired of being courageous, we are tired of winning, we are tired of defeating our enemies. We want to live in an entirely different environment with our enemies. We want them to be our friends, our partners, our good neighbours, and I believe that this is not impossible and it is within reach if we are smart, if we will dare, if we are prepared to take the risks, and if we will be able to convince our Palestinian partners to be able to do the same."
Front Page Features