The objective of the US president is to rally the Arab neighbours of Iran against the latter's nuclear ambitions
These are not the best of times for George W. Bush. The unpopular US president, a lame duck to boot, should not even consider venturing abroad, certainly to areas such as the turbulent Middle East where America's image has hit rock bottom during his tenure.
The blame is attributed to his administration's policies which have wrecked havoc in the region and yielded little to brag about.
For a start, the purpose of his ambitious journey to Israel and several Arab countries - Palestine, Kuwait, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt - has kept changing as the departure date approached and on the eve of his tour - last Tuesday - seemed preposterous.
Other than the rumour that he may stop over in Iraq for a morale boosting encounter with the troops after the "surge" has somewhat quieted the Iraqi "hot spots" or that he may also visit Lebanon, his emerging objective now seemed to focus on Iran as well as to urge the oil-rich Arab states to invest more of their money in the US, which at present is facing a serious economic crisis.
A key Arab ambassador also confided a couple of days ago that Bush, who is not expected to make any dramatic announcements during his visits to Israel and Palestine will try to convince Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to spell out his position on Palestinian refugees in a way that will calm Israeli concerns.
The Palestinians' "right of return", endorsed by the United Nations in 1948, is probably the most divisive and sensitive among the so-called core issues that need resolution before a final settlement can be reached by the end of this year as promised at the Annapolis peace meeting last month.
In an obvious bid to add some pizzazz to the visit of the American leader and seemingly to give more substance to their fledgling dialogue, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Abbas have agreed that their negotiating teams will henceforth be holding talks on core issues which also include such topics as borders, colonies and occupied Jerusalem.
Before leaving Washington, Bush coincidentally urged Israel and the Palestinians to agree on a clearly defined outline for a Palestinian state.
Little noticed remark
Bush's statement reaffirms a little noticed remark he had made to the US-sponsored Arabic language television station, Al Hurra, in which he fell short of the commitment at the Annapolis meeting, attended by nearly 50 countries, that a Palestinian state will be achieved by the end of this year.
He seemed to backtrack when he told Al Hurra that he hoped that "the outlines, the definition of a (Palestinian) state can be achieved" by the end of this year, but "the implementation of a state will be subject to a road map".
Jon B. Alterman, director of the Middle East Programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said he is "very sceptical of broader progress" on Palestinian-Israeli issues at this time because it seems to him that neither side has "any consensus on what it is trying to achieve or how it plans on achieving it, what measures of diplomacy and violence will have to be used in the coming months and years".
He also doubted that Bush will have any "dramatic departure" from his commitment to Ariel Sharon, the former Israeli prime minister, that there will have to be adjustments to the 1967 borders which Israel crossed when it occupied the remaining Palestinian territories as well as border areas within the bordering Arab states.
Contrary to earlier expectations, the objective of Bush, who is considered by Israel as its "greatest friend", is to rally the Arab neighbours of Iran against the latter's nuclear ambitions.
His stance contradicts a recent US intelligence report that said Iran has abandoned its pursuit of nuclear weapons since 2003 - a point that is vehemently challenged by Israel and may be a factor in Israel's refusal to pursue a peace settlement with the Palestinians. More importantly, it runs counter to Arab intentions to co-opt the Tehran regime rather than confront it.
Second objective
A second objective is to urge the oil-rich Arab states to increase their investments in the US, something the country is desperately in need of in the wake of the serious economic crisis and the downfall of the dollar on world markets.
Anthony Cordesman, a prominent strategist at CSIS, pointed out a report from the International Monetary Fund which said there is "about $1.2 to $1.5 trillion worth of investment going from this region to the outside world. That is a vast amount of money."
True, and this opens a new a two-way street. Would the Arab world learn how to use this money in winning over new friends and allies.
Front Page Features