My New York-based colleague Shlomo Shamir (and other reporters in other news outlets), wrote yesterday about the new Anti Defamation League survey dealing with American attitudes toward Israel. "Majority of Americans are still strong supporters of Israel" was the headline. That is certainly true, and the poll is definitely positive.
But not all of it is positive, and the numbers merit another look. So here it is:
1. According to the ADL, 58 percent of Americans hold Israel in high regard compared to other countries. That is much lower than Britain and Japan, still higher than France, much higher than Pakistan. A similar comparison can be found in a Quinnipiac poll from last November. France is much lower in the Quinnipiac poll, which tells you how fast such things can change. Also, in the Quinnipiac poll India is 12 points lower than Israel ? while in the ADL poll they are tied.
2. Americans also sympathize more with Israel than with the Palestinians. This is not new. From this recent The Israel Project poll one can learn something that is not seen in the ADL poll: "Over all, support for Israel remains steady from the last poll, 49 percent now, 50 percent in January. But there has been a downward trend since the August 2006 record, 56 percent."
3. "Americans just looove Israel", I wrote in February 2006. "No exceptions, no excuses, no variations, no room for contradictory analysis". This, of course, was an intended exaggeration of the results provided by a Gallup poll. It found, back then, that 68 percent of Americans were favorable toward Israel - 21 percent "very favorable." Only 23 percent view Israel unfavorably. Strangely, in the ADL poll, the favorability percentage is only 58 percent. That is ten points lower.
4. Strange things often happen with polls. I wrote about many strange polls in my time here in Washington, among them the one in which American academicians declared America to be the second most dangerous country in the world. "Here's one survey that will make you laugh - or cry", I wrote, "Depends on how seriously you think academicians should be taken".
My guest this week, Prof. KC Johnson, is dealing with exactly this topic: beliefs in academe. "The twin events of the second intifada (with the Palestinians launching a campaign that used murder of civilians as a deliberate strategy) and the 9/11 attacks (which made most Americans more sympathetic to the kinds of threats Israel long has faced) helped to create the overwhelmingly pro-Israel nature of contemporary U.S. public opinion", he writes. "But as memories of both events fade, I suspect public opinion will return to the more varied perspective of the 1990s. The anti-Israel contingent of the academy, however, will remain very much entrenched."
5. Here is the troubling part that the ADL did not emphasize enough, nor did the news stories dealing with the new study.
Asked if America "should continue to support Israel even if it means there will be a greater risk of terrorist attacks against America", most Americans ? 57 percent - still say yes.
But looking at the same question asked in previous polls the trend is clear ? 62 percent said yes in 2003, 61 percent in 2005, 57 percent in 2007. The number of explicitly saying no rose from 31 percent to 34 percent.
Bottom line: Today, more Americans will be ready to abandon Israel if supporting it means more terror attacks.
6. But this is just the empty half of the glass. The full half is somewhat more reassuring.
Asked is the U.S. is actually more likely to be targeted by terrorists because of its support for Israel, a positive trend is detectable. Sixty-five percent of Americans still believe that relations with Israel might invite more terror attacks, but this number is actually a decline from 68 percent in 2005 and a whopping 73 percent in 2003.
Bottom line: Even if more Americans will reconsider their support for Israel because of terror attacks, fewer Americans blame Israel for terror attacks.
7. Another problem Israel faces is that fewer Americans believe it is ready to make peace. Seventy percent in 2003, 74 percent in 2005, only 65 percent today. A similar trend was detected by the TIP survey of American elites: 70 percent cited the need to be "a leader in working for peace" as heading the list of 13 qualities required of an American "ally" in this poll, but only 16 percent saw this among Israel's traits.
So, the ADL is right by saying that "Americans continue to believe that Israel is very serious about wanting to reach a peace agreement with the Palestinians." Again, the trend is clearly downward.
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