U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has borrowed a chapter or two from Henry Kissinger's book of applied negotiations as she headed back out to the Middle East for her eighth visit to the region in the last six months.
Kissinger, of course, was secretary of state under Richard Nixon and was the one who invented the concept of shuttle diplomacy. Fully determined not to walk away without an agreement, Kissinger conducted non-stop diplomacy, flying continuously back and forth, carrying messages, proposals and counterproposals between Damascus and Jerusalem. In a single month he made more than four times the number of trips Rice has undertaken since taking over as America's top diplomat. And when he wasn't flying to Damascus and Jerusalem, Kissinger was flying to Cairo and Jerusalem.
Much like Kissinger's, Rice's repeated visits to Jerusalem and Ramallah, along with side trips to Cairo and Riyadh, are intended to consult with Israeli and Palestinian leaders and to convince Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert as well as Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas that Annapolis will offer the Middle East antagonists a last chance for peace. Should that peace conference flop, it will be a long while before the United States gets involved anew in the Israeli-Palestinian crisis. The outcome of a failed conference will result in a new round of violence.
Rice's much-necessary detours to confer with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Saudi King Abdullah are to recruit their services in applying some last-minute serious political arm-twisting and raise the pressure from Washington on the Palestinians and Israelis prior to sending out formal invitations to the Middle East peace summit scheduled to be held in Annapolis, Md., later this month.
The success or failure of the peace talks will depend largely on which countries will attend the conference later this month and which ones will boycott the talks.
The overall advice offered by battalions of experienced analysts specializing in the Middle East, people educated in the ways of the Arab world, experts who usually have in-depth knowledge of the region, its lore and traditions, is a larger working group that would include all regional players.
If on the other hand, the conference is limited to those parties already convinced of the need to hold a conference and with whom the United States largely agrees, then the outcome of the peace conference is doomed from the start.
Which countries to invite
The reasoning is simple: Countries excluded from the negotiations are typically those in a position to torpedo any potential peace agreement if they so choose to do. Syria and Iran each control proxy militias in Lebanon and/or the Palestinian Territories who could easily be activated to undermine any peace deal with which they disagree.
Syria, in that sense, is a key player who is yet to be invited to Annapolis. Although once again, no one has yet been officially invited to Annapolis, nor has an official date for the conference been established. A report carried by a European radio station Monday seems to indicate that invitations from the U.S. State Department would be going out to a number of Arab countries, including Syria.
However, Imad Mustafa, Syria's ambassador to Washington, speaking from the U.S. West coast where he is attending a conference, told this reporter that if the United States does not include the issue of the Golan Heights on the agenda, Syria sees no reason to participate in the conference.
The Golan, occupied by Israel in the June 1967 war, has been the primary sticking point in all negotiations involving Syria and Israel. Damascus has consistently insisted on the return of the entire strategic plateau to Syrian rule before considering further discussions with Israel.
"We don't want to come (to Annapolis) and waste our time," Mustafa said.
"We can applaud from Damascus," Mustafa said. "There is no need to come to Washington."
He, however, said he was in constant communication with the embassy in Washington, speaking to embassy staff every half hour.
"As of 30 minutes ago when I last spoke to the embassy," he said, "there was no information of any invitation having been extended."
It's now up to Rice to decide -- in conjunction with her boss the president -- exactly when the Annapolis conference will start, as well as which countries will be on the list of invitees.
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