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Few events in Mideast peacemaking history have been subjected to as much cynicism as today's Annapolis meeting. This is due to the perceived lack of planning in the lead-up to the meeting, mismanagement of expectations, and the reported gaps between Israelis and Palestinians over the text of a joint declaration at the meeting's conclusion.
THE MIDDLE EAST peace conference convened by the United States in Annapolis, Md., may or may not move the Israeli-Arab conflict closer to resolution (my money is on "may not"). But, whatever happens, there is already one winner: George W. Bush.
This is Bush's bash. His name is on the invitation. The party is at his place. The guests are strictly A-list. Every
America puts on a good Middle East peace summit. It must be all the practice, but whether up in the hilly presidential retreat of Camp David, in the Rose Garden outside the White House or, as will take place today, in the grounds of the United States Naval Academy, Annapolis, you can be sure of a good show.
Last time I visited Jerusalem, I sat down with a colleague and tried to see how many Middle East peace plans and conferences we could list. Within a couple of minutes we had scribbled down Venice, Madrid, Oslo, Camp David I, Camp David II, Taba, the Rogers plan, the Annan plan, the Reagan plan, the Tenet plan, the Saudi plan, the Mitchell report, the Geneva accord and the road map.
I have lost the beer mat on which I was keeping the minutes of our discussions – so I apologise if I have missed some out. But you get the general point. The record is not encouraging.
Big Israeli armoured bulldozers, guarded by a stationary escort of tanks and armoured personnel carriers half-hidden in the adjacent sandbanks, were operating all along the exposed walk south on the Palestinian side of the hi-tech Erez terminal separating Gaza from Israel yesterday.
Hosted by the US president and supported by Arab, European and other foreign ministers, Palestinian and Israeli leaders are expected to re-launch their long stalled negotiations in Annapolis on Tuesday.
Judging from its high attendance and low expectations, Annapolis is more likely to help three sitting ducks, Olmert, Abbas and Bush, than advance the cause of peace in the Middle East.
Israelis are concerned about Iran's nuclear programme, which they believe is an existential threat. Supporting this argument they misquote the Iranian president as saying he wants to wipe Israel off the map.
They are right to be worried but their concerns are misplaced. Israel's continued existence as a Jewish state may be in the balance but this has nothing to do with Iran.
Timing: Promising to conclude the peace negotiations within a year is the headline of this document. It is a challenge that should not be taken lightly.
Both sides remember that deadlines are not sacred in the Middle East, and were rarely met in similar occasions. Nevertheless, they will try to meet this goal, paying Bush for his vision (the Palestinians) and support (Israelis).
Tzipi Livni says the world can be divided into two: The good guys, who came to Annapolis, the ones who want to make peace - and the bad guys, who oppose the conference and want to sabotage peace efforts. According to the foreign minister, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) and his friends in the Ramallah government belong to the good guys. The Hamas leader in Gaza, Ismail Haniyeh, belongs to the bad guys.
Israeli and Palestinian leaders seeking to resolve their differences in Annapolis may as well meet on the moon. Beyond the wide gaps on the core issues, the Annapolis framework ignores the harsh reality that Hamas is shut out of the process while poised to violently derail the entire effort. It is based on wishful thinking that so-called moderate Palestinian forces will be strong enough to overpower hardliners and enforce a final agreement. Though it has positive elements, the strategy is likely to fail. But progress is possible, and still within reach.
Getting representatives from at least a dozen Arab countries to Annapolis today for President Bush's Middle East summit was no small feat considering America's reputation in the region and the unlikely prospect of substantive change in the Israeli-Palestinian relationship. But Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice could advance the peace agenda - and her diplomatic credentials - if she secures Syria's involvement in the process beyond the one-day meeting.
Israel and the Palestinian Authority agreed Tuesday to immediately launch peace negotiations in order to reach an agreement by the end of 2008, President Bush said in his remarks at the Middle East peace conference in Annapolis, Maryland.
Prior to his prepared address, Bush read a joint statement agreed on by the sides during last-minute negotiations at the summit.
As almost 50 delegations assembled for the Annapolis conference on Tuesday, one question stood out. Why was the Bush administration, which had once scorned Bill Clinton’s efforts to broker Middle East peace, risking a high-profile attempt of its own, despite near to rock bottom expectations?
“You can make the case that in an attempt to shoot the moon and get nothing, more violence resulted,” Ari Fleischer, then President George W. Bush’s spokesman, said in 2002 of Mr Clinton’s Camp David negotiations two years before.
It was an elegant setting for the luncheon hosted by the Israel Project one week ago. Guests at the National Press Club in Washington picked at salmon on a bed of salad, forks clinked gently against plates. The hostess spoke quietly of peace and understanding.
But then David Wurmser showed up.
A motley coalition of cynics and extremists were quick to write off the Annapolis peace conference as a waste of time. The best way for Israel to prove them wrong is to show that it knows there is no more time to waste.
Links:
[1] http://www.americantaskforce.org/print/5840
[2] http://www.americantaskforce.org/printmail/5840
[3] http://www.americantaskforce.org/printpdf/5840
[4] http://www.americantaskforce.org/rss/wpr
[5] http://www.americantaskforce.org/world_press_roundup/20071127t000000
[6] http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/opinion/views/orl-rafi2707nov27,0,5844402.story
[7] http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-chafetz27nov27,0,4441617.story?coll=la-opinion-rightrail
[8] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/11/27/do2702.xml
[9] http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7fca1ffa-9c2b-11dc-bcd8-0000779fd2ac.html
[10] http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article3198888.ece
[11] http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/24AF187D-A114-49FC-BDE7-4A1955C49F3D.htm
[12] http://www.gulfnews.com/opinion/columns/region/10170549.html
[13] http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/928648.html
[14] http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/928363.html
[15] http://www.csis.org/index.php?option=com_csis_progj&task=view&id=1121
[16] http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/editorial/bal-ed.summit27nov27,0,1484746.story
[17] http://www.forward.com/articles/12099/
[18] http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/970a6af4-9d10-11dc-af03-0000779fd2ac.html
[19] http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,druck-519935,00.html
[20] http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1195546737125&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull