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The prisoner exchange between Hamas and Israel that is expected to begin next week could reshape regional relationships, strengthening Egypt, Hamas and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel while posing an acute challenge to the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.
One result might be a more confrontational — and Hamas-imbued — Palestinian movement that could, in the long run, increase Israel’s difficulties, drawing inspiration from and invigorating popular protests across the Middle East. It could also tighten the relationship between Hamas, Egypt and Turkey.
Initial jubilation over the impending prisoner swap between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas began to dampen Wednesday as people on both sides expressed concerns that their leaders may have given away too much at the negotiating table.
Hamas' military wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades, threatened Thursday to abduct more Israeli soldiers in order to force a prisoner exchange with Israel.
At a press conference in Gaza City, the Brigades' spokesperson, Abu Obeideh, said, "An Israeli incursion in Gaza announces good news to Gilad Shalit, that he may have new friends."
Abu Obeideh announced a plan to defend Gaza saying, "It will stun the Israelis and confuse them." He gave no further details.
Hezbollah on Wednesday said that the deal to release over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners for the kidnapped soldier Gilad Schalit was a victory for the resistance, Lebanon's Daily Star reported.
According to the report, Hezbollah released a statement praising the agreement and saying that it showed that Palestinian resistance is "effective in regaining land, freeing prisoners, and preserving its freedom, dignity, and independence."
The Hezbollah comments echoed Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal, who spoke on Tuesday when news of the deal broke, calling it a "great achievement."
Fatah leader Azzam al-Ahmad said Wednesday that his meeting in Cairo with Hamas chief Khalid Mashaal was "positive" and that reconciliation talks would restart "soon."
Al-Ahmad, who heads the Fatah delegation in talks with Hamas, told reporters after the meeting that the talks had not been planned, but were arranged at the last minute as the officials happened to be in the Egyptian capital.
During the meeting, Mashaal phoned President and Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas and expressed his full supported the president's recent bid for full UN membership, al-Ahmad said.
Decades of fraught relations between the Israeli government and Bedouin Arabs living in the hardscrabble Negev desert are coming to a head over a state plan that would expel 30,000 of the nomads from unauthorized tent encampments and shantytowns and move them into some of the country's most destitute towns.
The Israeli Cabinet recently approved the plan, reflecting growing anxiety that Bedouin are taking over more of the Negev, an inverted triangle in the country's south crisscrossed with rocky mountains and dry riverbeds and covering more than half of Israel's land mass.
Jewish settlers attacked on Thursday a Palestinian school, raising fears that conflicts between Israelis and Palestinians may increase when the U.N. Security Council was debating on a Palestinian bid for statehood, witnesses and security sources said.
The witnesses said that several Jewish settlers threw stones and empty bottles at Kortoba females school in the southern West Bank city of Hebron.
The U.S. State Department criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's newly launched attempt to legalize West Bank outposts on Wednesday, saying the move was "unhelpful" to Mideast peace efforts.
On Tuesday, Netanyahu's office announced instructed Justice Minister Yaakov Neeman to set up a task force to explore ways to legalize houses in the settlements that were built on private Palestinian land.
The plan is likely to generate more criticism from the United States, which has pledged to veto a Palestinian request last month for full membership of the United Nations, if it comes to a vote in the Security Council.
The Palestinians have been preparing their drive for membership of the U.N. agencies over the past two years as part of a plan to get ready for statehood, said Omar Awadallah, who heads the U.N. department at the foreign ministry.
Left out of a prisoner swap between Hamas and Israel, the Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti must now wait for a different type of deal to get him out of the Israeli jail where he is serving multiple life sentences.
It may never happen.
Hamas's indirect negotiations with Israel to exchange the soldier Gilad Shalit for 1,000 Palestinians in Israeli jails were seen over the last few years as Barghouti's best hope of release.
President Mahmoud Abbas' decision to request UN membership for Palestine at the Security Council is the right decision.
It is the right decision if you believe in two states. It is the right decision if you believe in one state. It is the wrong decision if you believe in the status quo.
The status quo is the continuing occupation of Palestine and its people, daily human rights violations, denial of access to Jerusalem and Palestinian holy sites, as well as settlement construction without end. The status quo also means no tangible remedy for Palestinian refugees.
It was depressing to see American President Barack Obama's weak appearance at the United Nations. It was depressing to see this talented man, who brought such great hope to the world, presenting the pitiable position of a feeble empire. It was embarrassing to see him defending positions and people whom only a few months earlier he had attacked with fury. His obsequiousness is shameful, and this weakness is a real danger to the world. Therefore anyone who wants peace cannot make do merely with accusing Obama. One cannot allow his desperation to have veto power over our hope.
It is hard to read the prisoner swap agreement to free Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier held in Gaza for five years, as anything less than a victory for his captors, Hamas. But it is a qualified one. Of the 1,027 prisoners Israel has agreed to release, 479 of the names have been nominated by Hamas (the rest will be chosen by Israel). Of the 479, 315 were serving life sentences for involvement in some of the bloodiest attacks on Israel, and most served over 20 years.
When Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas spoke to the General Assembly of the United Nations in New York last month, he demanded the release of about 6,000 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. At the time he was riding a wave of momentum due to the bid for recognition of a Palestinian state at the world body.
The prisoner exchange between Hamas and Israel - announced but not yet concluded - could not have come at a more urgent moment. The fate of the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit has caused friction between Hamas and Fatah since he was kidnapped on Israeli soil in 2006. Removing such a stumbling block to unity can only be a good thing.
Freedom is in the air. And no words can sum up the sentiments and emotions of thousands of Palestinian families as they anxiously await the release of their brothers, sisters, sons, daughters, fathers and mothers who have spent years and decades in Israeli prisons. Especially when so many times in the past they had come tantalizingly close to reuniting with their loved ones only to see their hopes crashed. This is a déjà vu moment they have experienced rather too often in the past, forever hanging between hope and despair.
Palestine knows, Israel knows, the US knows, and the entire world knows what the end result of any attempt to end the conflict in the Middle East must be.
Like so many others in Israel and Palestine, I, too, sat transfixed in front of the television screen as I listened to the speeches at the UN by US President Barack Obama, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.
All three of them addressed the representatives of the countries around the world but spoke to their peoples at home.
And I was amazed.
Links:
[1] http://www.americantaskforce.org/print/21582
[2] http://www.americantaskforce.org/printmail/21582
[3] http://www.americantaskforce.org/printpdf/21582
[4] http://www.americantaskforce.org/rss/wpr
[5] http://www.americantaskforce.org/atfp_sixth_annual_gala
[6] http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/13/world/middleeast/israeli-palestinian-prisoner-swap-rattles-regional-politics.html?ref=middleeast
[7] http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2011/10/israel-palestinians-hamas-prisoner-swap-gilad-shalit-reaction.html
[8] http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=198845
[9] http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=241602
[10] http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=428893
[11] http://www.statesman.com/news/nation/inside-israeli-desert-standoff-over-land-1910996.html
[12] http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-10/13/c_131189802.htm
[13] http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/u-s-israel-move-to-legalize-west-bank-outposts-unhelpful-to-peace-efforts-1.389688
[14] http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/13/us-palestinians-international-idUSTRE79C28K20111013
[15] http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/barghoutis-fate-now-firmly-in-israels-hands/
[16] http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=428860
[17] http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/opinion/palestinians-should-vote-in-jerusalem-elections-1.389494
[18] http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/oct/12/palestinian-prisoner-swap-gilad-shalit-editorial
[19] http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/hamas-trades-shalit-for-a-new-lease-on-its-political-standing
[20] http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/editorial/reconciliation-after-prisoner-exchange
[21] http://arabnews.com/opinion/editorial/article516884.ece
[22] http://www.jpost.com/JerusalemReport/TheRegion/Article.aspx?id=241571