Are we witnessing the harbingers of a “Palestinian Spring” or the first signs of a long-awaited third Palestinian intifada, whose triggers — many observers say — come from the Palestinian issue itself?

This recurrent question is raised each time Palestinian protests and demonstrations erupt — although they remain limited and sporadic. Should the third Palestinian intifada break out, it will be different from the two previous uprisings. It will not happen merely for reasons related to national liberation, despite the fact that the latter remains an essential factor — whether directly or indirectly — in any Palestinian popular movement.

However, there are other causes [that could trigger a third Palestinian intifada]. Most importantly, there is the acute decline in the living conditions and socioeconomic status of the Palestinian people, whether in the West Bank or the Gaza Strip. This is due to an abnormal situation, which is basically reflected in the [Israeli] occupation.

In this context, the World Bank states that the current crisis is the worst since the establishment of the Palestinian Authority (PA).

Among other causes, the PA has seen a decline in its financial resources. Israel has been playing this card through the Paris Economic Agreement. At times, Israel has pressured the PA by using the agreement’s terms and their specific interpretations, while at other times through penal measures [provided for in the agreement].

This is possible due to the strong and essential interrelationship between Israeli economic decisions — which are naturally tied to political decisions — and the management and control of the Palestinian economy.

Given this fundamental cause of the current state of misery, the Israeli government is keen — every once in a while — to relieve this tension, as it fears that the situation may explode, or in response to friendly pressure from its Western [allies]. Israel would then alleviate customs procedures, release some of the seized funds belonging to the PA, or set a certain quota for Palestinian workers [allowed to operate] in Israel.

There is also, of course, the occupation’s exploitation of infrastructure. Israel controls the majority of basic resources and is keeping a tight rein on Palestinian economic productivity.

Moreover, due to the ongoing blockade there have been severe structural deformities in the Palestinian economy, whether in the West Bank or in Gaza, which remains an open-air prison.

This is not to mention the mismanagement and lack of know-how on the part of the Palestinian leadership, whether we are talking about the PA in the West Bank or the Hamas leadership in Gaza.

Both Palestinian leaderships have been hit by all of the same [managerial] symptoms and diseases afflicting other Arab regimes, despite the particularity of the Palestinian cause. This is evidenced by a rise in criticism, directed at the ruling authorities, from various groups across the Palestinian territories.

The general political situation is also one of the reasons behind these Palestinian demonstrations and protests. The sharp division between Ramallah and Gaza remains at the core of the problem. The anticipated Palestinian reconciliation process is back to square one.

This is happening amid an exchange of accusations and blame, as well as in the presence of external factors — Arab, regional and international — and organizational and personal interests. This further contributes to weakening the Palestinian’s already fragile political position. It also increases the sense of despair felt by various components of the Palestinian people toward the Palestinian political establishment, including all its components, its rhetoric and its proposals.

Furthermore, there is a lack of hope regarding [the possible success of] a political settlement of the “Palestinian file,” which has so far remained on the shelf. It has been on the shelf of regional and international policies in the region since the beginning of the third millennium, due to the presence of more heated issues affecting the interests of all parties in the region.

Since the start of the Arab Spring, the Syrian crisis has overshadowed the Palestinian issue, along with other ongoing issues such as the Iranian nuclear file, which is a priority and main concern in the region.

Some — out of wishful thinking or false analysis — even thought that the Palestinian issue had faded into oblivion.

The inability of the Palestinian side to impose the Palestinian issue on the international and regional agenda — because it actually does not threaten stability in the region — has allowed all parties to ignore it.

This is evidenced by a decline in financial support pledged to the Palestinian Authority, even from its “Arab brothers.” This has further exacerbated the economic crisis [in the Palestinian territories].

Another factor contributing to the crisis is the presence of an active and aggressive Israeli policy, which strives to create a new reality that eliminates any possibility of reaching a fair settlement in the future. The policies of building settlements and dividing the West Bank are being actively implemented.

Also, the new policy is based on raising the issue of Jewish refugees from Arab countries, in order to sideline and eliminate one of the most important elements of a future settlement: the Palestinian refugees.

All of this is happening while the Arab position is characterized by a mere seasonal media stance in the absence of any political action. This increases the anxiety, despair and anger of the Palestinian people.

A completely closed horizon of a political settlement over two decades, the erosion of legitimacy of all branches of the Palestinian political establishment in the eyes of the Palestinian people, and a state of continuous and hopeless economic desperation are elements that could prompt a Palestinian popular uprising.

This uprising could change the rules of the game in the region, particularly with regards the Palestinian issue, and bring it back to being a priority among strategic political issues in the region.

Ambassador Nassif Hitti is Head of the Arab League Mission in Paris and Permanent Observer at UNESCO. He is also a member of the Al-Monitor Board.