THE Arab Spring is devolving into a prolonged and sweltering summer with political or military deadlocks perching over Libya, Yemen, Syria and even Egypt and Tunisia where popular uprisings earlier this year have toppled ruling regimes. And even in countries that have managed to avoid public protests the situation is not much better. In fact the region has never looked so engulfed in challenges, and so far only few Arab governments recognize that a major geopolitical shift is taking place.

From Morocco to Yemen the core issues driving popular uprisings are similar if not identical. Dysfunctional, conventional and corrupt regimes are unable to meet the legitimate, political, economic and social demands of a younger and better educated citizenry. The fall of the Berlin Wall, the advent of globalization and the empowerment that Information Technology has brought have all contributed to the creation of grassroots undercurrents which governments and ruling elites have either missed or ignored.

The pressure was compounded by the global financial crisis of 2007 and governments found themselves unable to absorb public dismay. The bubble burst in Tunisia in December and the contagion soon moved to Egypt. What is amazing though is that few regimes are able to appreciate the true dimensions of the political tsunami that is sweeping through the region. In Libya and Syria the regimes have opted for a military solution; unleashing the security apparatus to crush public protests, at the expense of a political settlement. Others have managed to defuse discontent, for the time being, through generous economic incentives. Jordan and Morocco have promised wide-ranging political and economic reforms, although the latter appears to be making faster progress by adopting historic constitutional amendments recently.

As each government tries to deal with its own domestic challenges, few are willing to admit that the region is now on the path of a major and irreversible transformation. It is inconceivable to believe that the current stalemate in Yemen, Syria and Libya will not be broken soon. Each of these beleaguered regimes is in trouble and the popular tide will continue to add pressure. But that does not mean that a happy ending is in store. An array of threats and challenges linger ahead including civil and tribal wars, possible partition and even military coups.

The enchantment that has shrouded the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia has by now dissipated. The carnage in Libya and Syria has shattered the idealism of the Arab Spring. Yemen is at a critical crossroad and the fear of militants taking control of parts of the country is not an exaggeration. The momentous regional events of the first few months of this year have shifted attention away from Iraq, where violence and political instability have been rising, and from Lebanon which is facing yet another political crisis over the international tribunal’s latest indictments on the Rafik Hariri’s murder

But the most important chapter in the saga of the Arab Spring is yet to be written and it involves the two countries that have come to symbolize this age of popular rebellion in the region; namely Egypt and Tunisia. Both are facing what appear to be insurmountable challenges in the post-uprising era. Both are yet to pass the test of successfully making the transition to full democratization. Presidential and legislative elections, to be held at the end of the year in both countries, will mark the nature of these emerging democracies and will have deep-seated effect on the rest of the region.

But the road to these crucial milestones is hazardous. Counterrevolutionary forces in Tunisia — remnants of the Ancien Régime — are trying to make a comeback through newly established political parties, while tension is heightening in Egypt between the ruling military council and various youth groups belonging to the January 25 Movement over delays in putting the former president, his sons and close aides on trial. In both countries it is widely expected that the Hard-liners will win a sweeping victory in the polls. This poses a serious challenge to the West and to conservative Arab regimes in the region.

And then there is the old Palestine problem, Israel’s occupation of Arab territories and the stalled peace process. Political changes in the Arab world will alter the course of the Arab-Israeli conflict in the long run. Emerging Arab democracies will have a different position on the prolonged suffering of the Palestinians and the failure of finding a peaceful solution.

Today the Arab Spring is a reality and not a passing phenomenon. Each Arab country will have to address issues relating to their own citizens and its future. No one should believe that the military option will succeed in reversing the current trend. But it is still early to say if we are witnessing the dawning of a new Arab renaissance!