Arabs are enamoured with senior officials in the American administration who are at a loggerhead with Israel over the controversy of new development in East Jerusalem. Explicit in the plethora of articles in the Arabic press is the hope that the American administration will follow through on its effort to force the Israeli government to submit to American pressure.
Yet, those who are familiar with this kind of American-Israeli public squabbling comprehend that this tension is short lived. Soon the Americans and Israelis will find a way to iron out their differences. This boring exercise has been repeated time and again and the losers, as usual, are going to be the Palestinians. They will continue to see Israeli efforts to Judaise Jerusalem at the expense of their rights in East Jerusalem.
Just a week ago, the American general David Petraeus testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee, stating the obvious: the continuation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a strategic quandary for the United States. In his words: "The conflict foments anti-American sentiment, due to a perception of US favouritism for Israel. Arab anger over the Palestinian question limits the strength and depth of US partnerships with governments and peoples in the AOR and weakens the legitimacy of moderate regimes in the Arab world."
While one agrees with this characterisation of the current situation, one is sceptical about the ability of the current administration to put its money where its mouth is. President Barack Obama, who has good intentions, needs to step up his diplomatic pressure on Tel Aviv in a way that can raise the cost of Netanyahu’s obstructionist policies. For American pressure to yield positive results, it needs to force Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to bring about a Cabinet reshuffle to rid himself of the right-wing component of his government.
It should not be surprising that Netanyahu’s number one priority is political survival, but this is incompatible with maintaining this government coalition and genuinely pursuing the peace process simultaneously.
It is wrong to assume that Netanyahu is hamstrung by the coalition and that he has no other option. Indeed, it is the other way around! The right-wing component of his government has no alternative other than Netanyahu, and as a consequence, Netanyahu could bring in Kadima Party and ditch the extreme right partners. Only then American pressure will carry considerable weight.
It is not as if the American administration lacks understanding of what it takes to rehabilitate Israel as a partner for peace. The problem is that considerable pressure exerted on Tel Aviv will not go on unchecked. One needs to read the thesis of John Mearsheimer and Stephan Walt pertaining to the role of domestic politics in Washington to understand that Israel has clout that could be employed to twist the arm of the American administration.
The Arabs should get their act together and quit pinning hope on the United States and start developing an alternative plan.
The summit in Libya can serve as a golden opportunity for Arab leaders to live up to the expectations of the masses who understand that the American administration will not be able to deliver peace.
Short of doing so, the Arabs will run the risk of being irrelevant. Soon Israelis and Americans will mend fences in a way that will enable Israel to maintain its offensive on Jerusalem. The losing side in this case will be the Arab, particularly the moderate camp who has been discredited for being complicit with the American strategy in the region.
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