Talks to secure a deal to release Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit have advanced, sputtered and stalled many times during his three years of captivity in the Gaza Strip. Israel is now on its second prime minister since Shalit was dragged from an army post in a cross-border attack in 2006 -- and its second special coordinator to the indirect negotiations with Hamas that had been brokered by Egypt. The last time things seemed within reach, Israeli elections interfered. Things began moving when the German mediator stepped in a while ago and talks are again reported at that make it-or-break it stage. Or not.

The subject of Shalit has over the years become entangled in other matters and conflicting interests between a number of parties. Hamas itself is geographically and politically divided between Gaza and Damascus, its outside political leaders appearing at times to have their eye more on mentors in Iran than Gaza, where local Hamas is more concerned with the blockade. It is also anxious to keep its rule and public support (it's said they spent $2 million on its 22nd anniversary celebrations this week). It's business but maybe personal too: It's unlikely that Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal has forgotten that the relevant Israelis on the other side of this divide were behind a botched attempt on his life more than a decade ago.

Israel won't talk to Hamas, but it is willing to maintain the indirect contacts in order to release the soldier. A public debate continues about the price Israel will pay, and the gradual inching toward Hamas' demands that have changed little -- although circumstances have. Commentators say that the soldier has turned from a bargaining chip between Israel and Hamas into a focus of regional power struggles.

And everyone has an interest. Issues such as the Rafah border crossing and Palestinian reconciliation talks have become a factor, as has the Egyptian involvement itself. Egypt has its own distinct interests concerning its next-door Palestinian neighbors, like the mired reconciliation talks. Some in Israel had regarded the original Egyptian exclusivity over the Shalit contacts a mistake. The German mediator (mysteriously called just that in Israel) took talks back to the point, removing other interests from the discussion and making progress. Now Israeli sources complain they're "being played" by him.

For months both sides generally complied with the mediator's stern warning that there be no leaks or he walks. A recent rash of talk might indicate a crunch hour when both sides need the media for their purposes.

Meanwhile, public campaigns for Shalit's release continue on nearly a daily basis. This week, Arab and Jewish children joined Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat to release hundreds of doves in support of Shalit, with notes written by the children attached to them. Volunteers continue to hand out yellow ribbons at junctions throughout the country and hundreds of people ran 10 kilometers Friday in a race dedicated to Shalit.

-- Batsheva Sobelman