Nader Said
AWRAD (Analysis)
October 17, 2009 - 12:00am
http://www.awrad.org/etemplate.php?id=193&x=4

Margin of error: +3 %
Field work dates: September 31 – October 3, 2009
Publication Date: Saturday - October 17, 2009
(1200 questionnaire in the West Bank and Gaza)

• 88% support the conduct of an election to resolve disputes
• Majority (56%) oppose the imposition of the Hijab in schools
• 81%: the PLO is the sole and legitimate representative of the Palestinians
• Fayyad‘s approval rate increases from 55% to 64%
• PLC Election: Fateh (58%) and Hamas (27%) and others (15%)
• Presidential Election: Abbas (64%) and Haniyeh (36%)
• 51% evaluate the performance of the Police as (good) and 24% as (medium)
• In the West Bank, the positive evaluation of the Police reaches 85%.

Introduction:

These are the results of the latest AWRAD poll carried out between September 31 and October 3 using a sample of 1200 Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. According to Dr. Nader Said, AWRAD‘s President, the results of this poll do not reflect the changes that took place as a result of the Goldstone Report.  The impact of the Report was reflected in another follow-up poll that AWRAD carried out on October 11 (see: www.awrad.org).  Dr. Said notes that the follow-up poll reveals that the popularity of Hamas and Haniyeh was more negatively influenced by the affair than that of Fateh, the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Abbas.  He also adds that the Goldstone Report led to a reinforcement of the division between the West Bank and Gaza.  Dr. Said argues that the following results reflect a more realistic account of the state of public opinion among Palestinians as it takes out from the results the temporary impact of the high-pitch rhetoric and polarization related to the Goldstone Report.

Main Results

1. The PLO

  • Support for the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO): 81 percent believe that the PLO is the sole and legitimate representative of the Palestinians.  In contrast, 17 percent disagree.
  • PLO and Hamas: 43 percent believe that Hamas should be allowed to join the PLO only if it agrees to its mandate.  In addition, 17 percent believe that Hamas should not be allowed into the PLO.  In contrast, 35 percent believe that the PLO should reform itself to accommodate Hamas.

2. The Performance of Governments

  • Fayyad‘s Government approval increases: 64 percent evaluate the performance of the Fayyad government as (good or medium) increasing by 10 points from August 2008, compared with 46 percent for the Haniyeh government, same as in August 2008. 
  • Dissatisfaction with the handling of the Salafi group in Gaza: 73 percent are dissatisfied with how the Hamas government handled the Salafi group in Gaza where more than 22 of its members were killed by Hamas forces.
  • Majority opposes imposing the Hijab: 56 percent oppose the imposition of the Hijab on high school female students by the government. In the West Bank, 63 percent oppose such action..

  • 3. Security

    • West Bank residents feel safer than Gazans: 40 percent feel safer now than two years ago and 33 percent feel less safe. More Gazans (38 percent) feel less safe than West Bank residents (31 percent).
    • Security agencies to fight crime: Majority believes that the role of the security agencies is to fight crime (38 percent) and protect the PA (35 percent).

  • 4. Fateh Congress

    • Majority interested in the Fateh Congress: 63 percent followed (to a large extent or partly) the news of the Fateh Congress held last August.
    • Majority views Congress as success: 53 percent believe that the congress was successful or partly successful.
    • Majority sees positive change in Fateh: 24 percent believe that the new elected Fateh leadership represents positive change (to a large extent) and 35 percent believe that (partly).
    • Reform Fateh first: 36 percent believe that reforming Fateh is the main priority for the new leadership, while 29 percent believe that the main priority is brining about internal unity. 
    • Marwan Bargouthi is the most respected member of the newly-elected Central Committee (52 percent), followed by Mohamed Dahlan (9 percent), Saeb Eriekat (4.6 percent), Jibreel Rjoub (4.4 percent) and Mahmoud Aloul (3.7 percent).

    5. Support for Elections

    • Election as the best means to resolve disputes: 88 percent believe that Hamas and Fateh should resort to the conduct of an election to resolve their disputes.
    • Widespread support for election: About 89 percent of the population supports the conduct of presidential and legislative elections during January 2010.

    6. Popularity and Election Predictions

    • Large group is undecided: Fateh‘s popularity is at 45 percent and Hamas‘s at 17 percent. As much as 38 percent remain undecided or say will not vote.
    • Majority for PLO groups: In a popularity contest, PLO affiliated and supportive groups gain 55 percent, Islamist groups gain 17 percent, but the undecided remain at about 30 percent. It is their votes that will determine the final outcome of a future election.
    • Potential for a list of independents: Running against Fateh and Hamas, a list of independents led by Fayyad would have about 9 percent popularity and a list led by Mustafa Bargouthi would have about 10 percent. 
    • AWRAD‘s legislative election predictions for today assuming a proportional electoral system:
      Fateh (58 percent)
      Hamas (27 percent)
      Independents and leftists (15 percent).
    • Abbas more popular than Haniyeh: Abbas (45 percent) gains over Haniyeh (21 percent) in a popularity contest, with 34 percent undecided or will not vote.
    • Marwan is most popular: Marwan (57 percent) gains over Haniyeh (19 percent), with 24 percent undecided or will not vote.
    • Abbas more popular than Fayyad: Abbas (with 40 percent) is more popular than Fayyad (with 12 percent). A staggering 48 percent will not vote or are undecided.
    • Abbas more popular than Mustafa Bargouthi:  Abbas (with 40 percent) is more popular than Mustafa Bargouthi (with 21 percent). About 39 percent will not vote or are undecided.
    • Fayyad and Mustafa Bargouthi are running head to head in a two-way popularity contest, with 28 percent voting Bargouthi and 27 percent voting Fayyad. About 46 percent remain undecided or will not vote.
    • In a three-way popularity contest, Abbas receives (39 percent), Haniyeh (19 percent) and Mustafa Bargouthi (16 percent). About 26 percent are undecided or will not vote.
    • In a three-way popularity contest, Abbas receives (40 percent), Haniyeh (20 percent) and Fayyad (11 percent).
    • Our presidential election predictions today for two-way races are the following:
      Abbas (64 percent) vs. Haniyeh (36 percent);
      Marwan (72 percent) vs. Haniyeh (28 percent).
      Abbas (77 percent) vs. Fayyad (23 percent)
      Abbas (66 percent) vs. Mustafa Bargouthi (34 percent      )
    • Our presidential election predictions today for three-way races are the following:
      Abbas (53 percent) vs. Haniyeh (31 percent) vs. Fayyad (16 percent);
      Abbas (50 percent) vs. Haniyeh (28 percent) vs. Mustafa Bargouthi (22 percent).


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