Egypt has been quietly negotiating between Israel and Hamas for the release of Hamas prisoners held by Israel and also for Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier captured by Hamas in 2006. A deal appears imminent. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in Cairo on Sunday for talks with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak; Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal was also in the Egyptian capital a few days earlier and is expected there again this week. Neither of the two men would have turned up there if there were still a mountain of details to climb.

That Hamas and Israel are in discussions, albeit indirectly, and that a prisoner release appears about to happen are encouraging. But, only mildly so.

While the Egyptians have been working hard to resolve one relatively minor cause of rancor between Israelis and Palestinians, Netanyahu remains a hard-liner on the all-important issue of ending settlement construction — without which there can be no resumption of Middle East peace talks. He says that at best there might be a temporary freeze.

This is no concession. He is not going to ditch the settlers; he needs their votes (and the votes of those within Israel’s pre-1967 borders who support the settlements). If he turns against them, he is finished.

In ruling out a complete freeze before meeting President Obama’s Middle East envoy, Sen. George Mitchell, Netanyahu has put his back to the wall but he does not care. He knows that the US will bluster and threaten over this but he is convinced that the threats will be formulaic and that when it comes to blinking first, Obama will. And who would disagree with that?

Nor are Sen. Mitchell’s comments following talks on Sunday with Israeli President Shimon Peres any reason for optimism. He said he and Peres shared a “sense of urgency” over negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians.

Fine words, but ultimately empty ones. Peres does not have the power to end settlement expansion. As for Mitchell, while it is gratifying to know he understands that all settlement expansion, including so-called “growth expansion” has to stop, he is just as impotent. US pressure has to be powerful enough to force Netanyahu to his knees on this issue; anything less than a total end to the program is a “Road Closed” sign as far as Middle East peace talks go. But there is no evidence Obama is prepared to act tough. He thinks that he can talk the Israelis into being reasonable. That is futile. Without some hard threats, he will be talking pointlessly until doomsday.

The only sense the Arabs have as they watch these latest talks is of déjà-vu and exasperation. They have been here so many times before and still the settlements grow, still the Israelis steal and colonize Palestinian land. An end to settlement expansion is, in fact, just the beginning. There can be no deal, no peace between Palestine and Israel, between Arabs and Israel, until the settlements — all the settlements — are handed over to the Palestinians. On that too, there can be no compromise.