For about six years, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has not visited the United States for well-known reasons, most prominently of course the deteriorating relations between the two countries during former President George Bush’s second term. And here is the Egyptian President now preparing for his first visit to the US capital next month, in the first year of President Barack Obama’s first term in office. This will be the third meeting that brings together the two presidents, after Obama’s brief visit to Cairo during which he addressed his speech to the Muslim world, and their second meeting on the sidelines of the G8 summit. The interest of both countries in the anticipated visit reflects a common desire to improve relations, to strengthen them and to get over the Bush era. However, analyses of the visit – which have gone as far as saying that the meeting could lead to a new US peace initiative or will drive the US Administration to rush to implement the promises made by Obama in Cairo regarding the Palestinian issue – are greatly exaggerated. It is true that Obama employs a political discourse much less acute than that of his predecessor Bush, and that he displays when meeting with any Arab leader a greater extent of respect and appreciation. Yet none of this has on the ground led to reaching a final solution to the Palestinian issue, for which there seems to be no solutions, whether the one sitting at the Oval Office in the White House is a Republican or a Democratic President, is white or black, rigid or forgiving.

Certainly the rift between the Palestinians represents an obstacle to achieving peace with Israel. However, more importantly, it has become the “coat-hanger” used by all parties to hang their failure or negligence upon. Indeed, despite disputes among the Palestinians, the world interacts with the Palestinian Authority and its President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), and the PA is always willing to engage in any negotiations. But what kind of interaction are we talking about? Is it about the visits, receptions, conferences, forums and letters of congratulations or condolences? Obama has not put his “beautiful” words to practice on the ground so far. Assuming that the confrontation between the Palestinian Authority and the Hamas movement is preventing the implementation of a specific peace plan, it is also true that Israel is still applying the same measures and policies that it has been practicing for long years without Obama or his administration to bridle its whims in issues that have been settled, such as for instance that of the settlements. In fact, Israeli stringency seems unchanged, without regard even for the US stances and views which Obama announced in his speech in Cairo, making of the issue of achieving peace in the Middle East an illusion unrelated to truth.

There are other sensitive issues between Cairo and Washington, some of which are concerned with the internal situation in Egypt and others that are related to economic and trade problems. Certainly issues such as these will take up a large part of discussions during the visit. Moreover, some of the regional issues in which Washington is interested and in which Egypt plays a role one way or another will also take up a large part of the discussion, issues such as the situation in Iraq, Somalia, Sudan and Iran. In spite of this, the Palestinian issue continues to represent the main predicament in Arab-American relations in general. Ordinary citizens in any Arab country cannot feel a real change in US policies and convictions unless Israel ceases its various practices and the hope of the Palestinian people in an independent state is achieved.

Yes, the visit itself counts as a major event, having come after all those years during which Mubarak refrained from going to Washington. And from now until the coming 18th of September, date of the visit, arrangements are being made and efforts exerted to prepare for it. Yet the Palestinian issue has reached such a stage of complexity that it makes the visit of an Arab leader to the United States an event that could activate the issue but not resolve it. Indeed, even if the US President wanted and was determined to work towards a solution to the Palestinian issue, the mechanisms of such a solution are no longer in his hands alone. Late Egyptian President Anwar Sadat used to often repeat his famous saying that “99 percent of the cards to resolving the Palestinian issue are in the hands of the United States”, yet it seems that the cards have gone with the wind and any US President no longer holds but a few remnants