Military Escalation is a Boon for Hamas: Even before the breach of the Gaza-Egypt border, the escalation in cross-border attacks between Gaza and Israel had pumped up public support for Hamas. This was the principle finding of a poll conducted in the West Bank and Gaza by the Ramallah-based AWRAD research center, when compared with an AWRAD survey from shortly before the November Annapolis peace conference. The new poll was in the field on January 18th and 19th – beginning the day after an Israeli attack in Gaza that killed 15 Palestinians.

In its survey analysis, AWRAD concluded that the poll confirmed “the hypothesis that military approaches and violence reinforce hard-line positions, and negatively influence the lot of all parties involved, especially the credibility of the president of the PNA and his government.”

In the most recent poll, 31% of Palestinians evaluated the Palestinian cabinet in the West Bank headed by Prime Minister Salam Fayyad positively, compared with 37% in November.  31% evaluated the Palestinian cabinet in Gaza headed by Hamas leader Ismail Haniyah positively, compared with 24% in November.

Asked to name a candidate to support for the Palestinian presidency in November, incumbent President Mahmoud Abbas topped this list with 22%. In the latest poll, Abbas’ support dropped to 16%, behind Haniyah (17%), who had come in third place in November’s rankings (with 14%). When Haniyah was matched in a one-on-one contest with Abbas, 39% said that they would vote for Abbas, while 27% chose Haniyah, a 12-point gap. This too reflected a drop in support for the Fatah candidate: in November’s poll, Abbas enjoyed a 24-point margin in the hypothetical contest.

AWRAD also noted that support for firing rockets from Gaza into Israeli territories nearly doubled from 27% in a December poll to 48% in January.

Nevertheless, the AWRAD poll demonstrated continued strong support for a negotiated two-state solution and opposition to attacks on Israeli civilians. 63% of Palestinians support a two-state solution. A large plurality of 42% identified negotiations as the best means to end the occupation and establish a Palestinian state, while 19% favored a peaceful popular uprising. 28% chose “operations against the Israeli military and settlers.” 4% favored “operations against civilians in Israeli cities.”

The visit of President George W. Bush to Israel and the West Bank received very low marks among Palestinians. Only 21% think that Bush is serious to any extent about establishing a Palestinian state. 65% believe that his visit will reinforce the Israeli occupation. 82% believe that the visit will not put a stop to Israeli settlement activities. (AWRAD, 1/23/08)

Recognizing a Failed Policy: In the wake of the collapse of the Egypt-Gaza border regime, Israeli policy makers appear to understand that the time has come to re-evaluate their approach to Gaza. Thursday’s Yedioth Ahronoth quotes senior Israeli political sources saying Israeli policy vis-à-vis Gaza and Egypt had simply collapsed: “Anyone who thought that an addition of 750 Egyptian Border Policemen would solve the problem now realizes that this will not help.  A much broader solution is needed, and Israel has to formulate a new strategy.” Sunday’s Yedioth Ahronoth reports that “Israeli officials are wracking their brains on how to act after the collapse of the siege on Gaza.  A large discussion was held by the Prime Minister’s Bureau on the strategic consequences of the crisis, and it was decided to speak with the Egyptians with the aim of resolving the crisis and not to confront them.  Director of the Political-Security Staff in the Defense Ministry Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilad also discussed the matter with his Egyptian colleagues.” Also in Yedioth Ahronoth, Shimon Shiffer adds that “an increasing number of figures in the Israeli leadership are reaching the conclusion that a dialogue with Hamas, one way or another, is vital—if we wish to reach a period of calm on the southern border.”

Criticism of the Israeli effort to pressure Gaza is now widespread. IDF Brigadier-General (Ret.) Yisraela Oron, former Israeli deputy national security adviser, told the Middle East Bulletin on Friday that she doesn’t know “why Israeli leaders still can’t understand that putting pressure on civilian populations to get some kind of result doesn’t work, it hasn’t before. … Every time we punish the population it’s going to strengthen Hamas. If this is the policy of the State of Israel, okay, but I want to hear them say it. But if it is the policy of Israel to strengthen Abbas then we are doing the wrong thing.”

Haaretz columnists Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff write Friday that the “scenes from the Gaza Strip, which showed happy crowds of people loaded with goods returning home from Egypt, support the notion that Israel’s decision to impose an economic embargo on the Strip was fundamentally mistaken. Israel tried to punish the entire Gazan population to cause it to overthrow Hamas rule. Preventing soda, cigarettes, cleaning materials and newspapers was thought to be an effective means of pressure in the war against the Qassam rockets… the security establishment, like the media, failed to appreciate correctly the enormity of the poverty in Gaza, and with it the hatred for Israel. It only pushed Hamas to bring down the wall, in a manner that will now make it difficult to restore the blockade on the Gaza Strip.”

The columnists add that, “Hamas did not only beat Israel in this round - Egypt and the Palestinian Authority also lost. The Ramallah-based state is now further and more disconnected from Hamas than ever.” They note that on the same day that the border was breached, Hamas leader Khaled Meshal held a “National Palestinian Conference” in Damascus. “The event was meant as a challenge to the PLO and PA leadership, and to stress that there is an alternative leadership for the Palestinian people,” explain Harel and Issacharoff. “In attendance were leaders of militant Palestinian organizations who came to reiterate that they would never relinquish the right of return to the ‘territories of 1948,’ armed struggle and jihad. The dramatic broadcasts from the Gaza Strip underscored to the summit in Damascus and presented the Hamas leadership as the real decision makers for the Palestinian people, while PA President Mahmoud Abbas was trying in vain to explain that ‘the Palestinian people desire peace.’” (Yedioth Ahronoth, 1/24 & 1/27/08; Middle East Bulletin, 1/25/08; Haaretz, 1/25/08)

Recognizing a Failed Policy, Part II: In the wake of the breach of the Gaza-Egypt border, the notion of a limited Israeli dialogue with Hamas is increasingly popular. Right-wing Maariv columnist Ben-Dror Yemini writes that Israel should have approached the rocket attacks from Gaza differently: “Here is the alternative scenario.  The prime minister could have convened a dramatic press conference, summoned all the representatives of the international media when the hail of rockets was at its peak… Then he would have said: We have no desire to harm even a single hair on the head of a child in a refugee camp.  All we want is for the residents of southern Israel to be able to sleep peacefully.  No more.  Therefore, I hereby announce the cessation of all of Israel’s reprisal actions.  True, it is our right to respond… Nevertheless, we extend a hand of understanding to the Palestinians.  You stop the Kassam rockets.  Not us, and not our army.  The ball is in your court.  This constitutes neither recognition nor non-recognition of Hamas.  It is only an attempt, one more attempt, to resolve the Kassam rocket problem without hurting anyone.  But if the Kassam rocket fire should continue—I hereby announce publicly, before media channels from all over the world, that our response will be harsh and severe.”

Yemini isn’t sure that such an approach would have stopped the Palestinian rocket attacks. In such a scenario, he writes, “after a dramatic declaration of halting all response from the Israeli side, and after a few days of no response, Israel’s right to respond would have gained the upper hand.  It is also possible, at a tiny to low probability, that Hamas, if it had only wanted to, would have halted the Kassam rocket fire.  And then the Israeli gain would have been twofold: both a PR victory and also termination of the Kassam rockets.” Yemini argues that it “is still not too late” for such an approach.  “The story of Gaza and the Kassam rockets is not over and done with.”

Writing in Ynet, Meretz Knesset Member Chaim Oron writes that the “siege imposed by Israel on Gaza must be weighed in line with its ability to bring more security to Gaza-region residents. Yet so far, our experience has shown that this type of cruel collective punishment doesn’t bring results. When we are threatened and our security is undermined, do we become more appeasing towards the other side? Does a woman who lost the child she was bearing because the Israeli blockade prevented her from reaching hospital will immediately conclude that she must resist the forces fighting against Israel? Does the distress faced by those who are struggling in the market in order to bring back home a small container of diesel fuel to ensure their families won’t freeze at night prompt thoughts about peace, or perhaps despair, which is the most fertile ground for inciters and fanatics? When a child grows in this reality, is he more likely to hope for the day when he can fight Israel, or the day when he can host Israeli tourists in Gaza?”

Oron clarifies that he does “not believe in diplomatic negotiations with Hamas. As someone who called 30 years ago for talks with the PLO terror group, I can say that Hamas is different. We are not talking about a national organization where there is a chance of reconciling its aspiration and ours… On the other hand, when we are talking about lifting the Qassam horror threatening the children of the western Negev and securing the release of Gilad Shalit, there is no other way aside from a short-term target-specific dialogue with Hamas. Talks on a ceasefire do not guarantee a long-term solution. Such truce would not bring quiet for many years in and of itself, yet it is the most effective, most logical way to bring quiet now and save our citizens in Sderot and area communities.”

Oron concludes with a concise argument: “Ignoring the option of talking with Hamas hurts, first and foremost, the citizens facing bombardment; boosting the pressure on the Gaza Strip does not mitigate their suffering, but rather, achieves the opposite result. However, targeted talks will lead to a lull in the armed conflict that should be used in order to promote diplomatic solutions, which Hamas fears, because it knows they would weaken him.  Such solution will offer residents in Gaza and the West Bank a better alternative for Hamas and will provide them not only with a fuel, but with a chance to live a life worth living.” (Maariv, 1/25/08; Ynet, 1/28/08)

Standing Firm on Outposts: The settlement outpost of Migron, which is situated on privately-owned Palestinian property near Ramallah, will be evacuated by the beginning of August, the Israeli government promised Israel’s High Court of Justice on Wednesday. The commitment was made in a letter responding to a legal petition brought by Peace Now, which asked the High Court to compel the Israeli government to enforce the law, and remove the outpost first established nearly seven years ago.

At the same time, the Israeli government’s letter reserved the right to defer this deadline and suggested that the government is planning to move the outpost to a new location in the West Bank, one that would be “available legally, with appropriate infrastructure.”

Wednesday’s commitment to take action within months is not the first in this case, which Peace Now filed after repeated complaints to law-enforcement authorities. In December 2006, Israel’s State Attorney told the court that the outpost would have to come down, the only questions being “the timing of the outpost’s evacuation and whether the outpost will be evacuated voluntarily by the residents.” Yet, this filing also included a request for a delay of five months before legal proceedings continued. In May 2007, the State Attorney informed the court that then-defense minister Amir Peretz needed two more months to prepare a comprehensive plan to evacuate all of the outposts, implying that court discussions should wait. In July, the state again asked for two more months so that the new defense minister, Ehud Barak, could “study the matter.” In September, the state asked for an additional extension.

After all these delays, this November, High Court President Dorit Beinisch scheduled a hearing for February. Wednesday’s communication comes in anticipation of that court date.

Peace Now leader Yariv Oppenheimer lambasted the government’s letter, saying that “it is time that the government will not only talk, but also will implement.” Noting the possibility that the evacuation of Migron would now lead to the establishment of a new settlement, Oppenheimer added that “instead of evacuating the outpost, the state is giving in to the settler’s violence and giving them a prize.” Right-wing spokesperson Itamar Ben-Gvir told Ynet that the settlers are not responsible when they use violence: “The State Attorney, the High Court of Justice, and the left are cooperating and dragging the settlers to acts of violence.” He added that any attempt to evacuate Migron would likely be met by significant resistance.

In Wednesday’s Yedioth Ahronoth prominent Israeli novelist A. B. Yehoshua writes about the implications of Israel’s failure to take effective action against outposts. He notes that for years, President George W. Bush “has been asking Israel to remove the illegal settlement outposts (according to Israel’s own definition), in order to promote the peace process that necessitates a separation between the two peoples, and in order to enhance Palestinian confidence in the US’s brokerage.  Israel willingly accepted this demand, not only to comply with its friend’s request, but because it is also opposed to these outposts, which contravene Israeli law and create anarchy in the territories.  Particularly since it is clear that these outposts will, in time, obstruct the separation process, which will require—according to the prime minister’s words as well—‘painful concessions.’ But in these three years, Israel has not carried out in practice what it sees fit to do and is capable of doing, and is thereby rejecting the request of its good friend.  The prime minister said himself, and rightfully so, that the failure to remove the illegal settlement outposts demeans us all, and certainly demeans our good friend—the United States.”

Beyond the impact on U.S.-Israel relations, Yehoshua adds that the ongoing influx of Israeli citizens into the West Bank threatens Israel, which is “entitled to keep an army in the territories for many years, until we have full confidence in the Palestinians’ ability to overcome terror and ensure our security.  But the interweaving and mixing of the two people to the point that there is no possibility of separation or delineating a clear border between them and us, will ultimately lead to a collapse of the Israeli identity and critical damage to the Zionist vision of borders and sovereignty.  The illegal settlement outposts in and of themselves do not, ostensibly, appear severe in their scale and the number of their residents.  But they are highly significant in their symbolic nature, and they make a mockery of the State of Israel’s ability to overcome them.” (Jerusalem Post, 1/23/08; Peace Now, 1/23/08; Israel Army Radio, 1/23/08; Ynet, 1/23/08; Yedioth Ahronoth, 1/23/08)

Seedlings of Peace: Israel’s Kibbutz Movement organized an event Friday for hundreds of Israelis and Palestinians to come together and plant olive-tree saplings on the agricultural lands of the West Bank village of Qaffin, which abuts the Green Line near Israel’s Kibbutz Metzer. Prominent Palestinians including PA officials and Fadwa Barghouti – wife of Marwan Barghouti, now imprisoned in Israel for terrorist activity – were expected to attend.

“We will speak to one another farmer-to-farmer,” Kibbutz officials told the right-wing Arutz 7 website. The event was scheduled to coincide with the Jewish holiday of Tu B'shvat, sometimes likened to Arbor Day.  (Arutz 7, 1/25/08; Kibbutz.org.il, 12/31/07; Israel Radio, 1/24/08)