NO OUTPOST CRACKDOWN, PART I: On the eve of President George W. Bush’s visit to Israel, Peace Now held a demonstration at the site of the largest unauthorized West Bank settlement outpost. This outpost, known as Migron, was constructed on privately-owned Palestinian land and the Israeli government has repeatedly expressed to the High Court of Justice its intention to remove it. At the rally, former Knesset Member and Peace Now leader Mossi Raz said that all illegal outposts “must be evacuated now, and the settlements as well. This government's promises are worth nothing, and outposts and settlements keep expanding all the time.” Raz also called for the start of genuine peace negotiations with the Palestinians: “I say to the government – you have a majority, the public has been convinced. Stop with these acts of cowardice and launch true negotiations with the Palestinians.”

Indeed, 53% of Jewish Israelis believe think Israel should meet its obligations regarding the evacuation of illegal outposts, while 37% disagree, according to the latest poll by the Tami Steinmetz Center at Tel Aviv University. The poll also found that a slightly narrower majority, 51%, wants to see Israel uphold its commitment to a settlement freeze as reiterated at the Annapolis conference.

On Thursday Bush said that during his visit he would “talk about Israeli settlement expansion, about how that is, that can be, you know, an impediment to success.” The president added that the “outposts, for example, need to be dismantled, like the Israelis said they would do.” Prime Minister Ehud Olmert reportedly plans to assure Bush that Israel is committed to dismantling illegal settlement outposts. Olmert is also expected to show Bush the new draft rules for Israeli construction in the West Bank. “There is also a domestic Israeli desire not to leave something illegal on the ground, and a way will be found to deal with this,” Olmert is planning to say according to leaks attributes to his associates.

But don’t expect Israel to take immediate action. A source close the prime minister told Haaretz that “there will be no outpost evacuations” until after the Winograd Committee’s report on the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war is issued and “the political situation [in the wake of the report] becomes clear.”

Meanwhile, unauthorized settlement outposts continue to thrive. There are more than 100 of them in the West Bank, housing some 3,000 squatters. Roughly 75% of outposts are built on privately-owned Palestinian land. Israeli government action against the outposts has been lackluster: since 2002, 31 outposts have been evacuated, but half of these were not yet populated. The government is also fighting a Peace Now legal petition that would force the publication of a Defense Ministry database on illegal settlement construction in the West Bank.

Ma’ariv reports today that right-wing activists are planning to greet President Bush with a new outpost to be located between Har Homa and Bethlehem. The land on which this settlement is to be built was allegedly purchased from a Palestinian several weeks ago. Development work has already begun at the site although no building permit requests have yet been filed. Another new outpost was established as recently as New Year’s Day when settlers from East Mattityahu placed two mobile homes on lands of the Palestinian village of Bilin, according to an Israeli police report. When Israeli police units arrived at the site they detained a crane operator and a truck driver, who were transporting the buildings, as well as two Palestinians and two settlers who clashed at the site. Three Palestinians – who claimed to have been beaten by the settlers – were taken by police to receive medical treatment. There was no report that the outpost was removed, although Palestinian-constructed structures near that site have twice been dismantled by police within a day of construction. (Jerusalem Post, 1/1, 1/3 & 1/6/08; Peace Now, 1/6/08; Ma’ariv-NRG, 1/2/08; Haaretz, 1/7/08; Tami Steinmetz Center, 1/7/08; Ynet, 1/7/08; Ma’ariv, 1/7/08)

NO OUTPOST CRACKDOWN, PART II: Defense Minister Ehud Barak has reportedly ordered Israeli law enforcement authorities to file complaints against right-wing provocateurs for repeatedly attempting to establish an outpost called Shvut Ami in the northern West Bank. Some 70 complaints have reportedly been filed, which have led to about 20 indictments.

Haaretz columnist Aluf Benn explains that “Shvut Ami has in recent months become a new symbol of the fight over the outposts - and, in the eyes of the security forces, an extreme example of the settlers’ ability to harass them. The outpost is located on private Palestinian land, a few hundred meters south of Kedumim, on the other side of the Kedumim-Alfei Menashe road. Activists occupied it a dozen times, and were removed by the Border Police, army and police. Attempts to occupy it continue, despite the fact that an IDF brigade is headquartered less than a kilometer away… Since November, Border Police officers began taking down the names of the young people at the outpost. To remove any doubts that the activists knew they were in a closed military zone (it is not clearly fenced), it was decided to try only serial offenders who were caught in the area again after having been warned previously.”

Writing in Ma’ariv, Yael Paz-Melamed expresses skepticism about this new Defense Ministry effort, lumping it together with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s demand that he approve all new settlement construction. The indictments against “serial outpost builders,” she writes, “is the outcome of the defense minister’s decision, who is also insisting that it be carried out. He also demands of those in charge to submit a weekly report on the matter. Ostensibly, the prime minister also decided to take initiative, and informed his good friend from long back, Housing Minister Zeev Boim, that from now on, every house that is built in East Jerusalem or in the settlements, has to receive his permission and the permission of the government.  This was as trivial as declaring that today is Thursday. But Boim, it appears, needs to be told these things, after, with great impudence, he approved the expansion of settlements without notifying anyone.”

“Only a week has gone by since his supposedly dramatic announcement that construction in East Jerusalem stop,” recalls Paz-Melamed, “and the Israel Lands Administration has already issued tenders to build 450 housing units in parts of Jerusalem outside the Green Line, in other words—in the territories.” Paz-Melamed attributes this hypocrisy to weak politicians. In her words: “there is no leader in Israel…  And so, a handful of a few hundred right wing extremists will continue to dictate a distorted agenda to an entire country that the majority of Israelis, according to every possible poll, don’t want. They will continue to climb deserted hilltops, to place a trailer and a half there, and to harass the army with the need to evacuate them.”

Haaretz’s editorial on Tuesday similarly suggests that there is much more that the Israeli government could do with sufficient political will: “First of all the state must take back the powers it surrendered to the settlers’ local councils. Since the Civil Administration is the highest authority in the territories, it can stop the construction of any house in every settlement, if it would only be given the proper directive. Stopping construction in East Jerusalem is more problematic, but possible… When public land is involved, it is easy to halt projects. When it comes to private property, compensation can be paid and the land expropriated. But for this to happen the government has to want it, and it is doubtful there is any enthusiasm in the coalition to stop construction in East Jerusalem. The attempt to keep the coalition stable has resulted in under-activity in the diplomatic realm and declarations on which there is no intention to make good.”

The editorial concludes that “Olmert is trying to navigate between [his coalition’s right-flank headed by Avigdor] Lieberman and [Palestinian President Mahmoud] Abbas; but if his intentions to negotiate are real, this does not stand a chance. Therefore the statements this week about directives to cabinet ministers on the need to stop construction in the settlements, or at least to inform the prime minister of any such construction, are pitiful and deceptive. Settlement construction will not be stopped with words.” (Haaretz, 1/1/08; Ma’ariv, 1/3/08)

FINAL STATUS PROCESS: Israel and the Palestinians have reportedly made progress on the means by which they will proceed with negotiations. Foreign Minister Tzippi Livni and former Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia reportedly agreed on Wednesday that future negotiations will be held on three tiers.

At the top tier, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will continue to meet every two weeks to monitor the progress of the negotiations and break deadlocks which may occur in the negotiating committees.

The second tier will be handled by Livni and Qureia and will focus on the core issues of refugees, Jerusalem and borders. In previous final status talks – which were cut off in 2001 – each issue was handled by an independent committee. A senior political source told Haaretz this weekend that this foreign minister-level committee will allow the two sides to engage in substantive dialogue. “This way it will be possible to carry out negotiations without pressure - neither political nor through leaks - and we will be able to make more progress,” the source said.

The third tier will be composed of subcommittees, which will be created to negotiate every other issue.

Other various committees will be established to handle issues such as security, implementation of agreements, Road Map obligations, disarmament, the deployment of a multinational forces, and dividing airspace. The committee on security issues is likely to be headed by Israeli Major General (res.) Amos Gilad, and Palestinian Interior Minister Abd al-Razek al-Yihiye. (Haaretz, 1/6/08)

NOVEMBER ‘08: The publication of the Winograd Committee report is looming over the Israeli political scene. The report, which evaluates the Israeli government’s management of the 2006 war with Hezbollah, is expected to be published on January 30th.

Likud faction chair Gidon Saar is preparing a bill that would set the next Knesset elections on November 11th, so that it coincides with elections for local authorities. There is a chance that Saar’s initiative will receive backing from within the Labor party if the Winograd report’s conclusions vis-à-vis Prime Minister Ehud Olmert are harsh. Olmert’s 77-member coalition may fall if Labor leaves with its 19 seats.

At the same time, some in the Labor party are reportedly working to encourage a scenario in which Olmert would be replaced as prime minister by another Kadima party leader like Foreign Minister Tzippi Livni. Labor Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer spoke to this issue on Israel’s Army Radio Sunday. “If the Winograd conclusions are such that require Olmert to get up and leave, and he does not leave,” said Ben-Eliezer, “and if Kadima does not make the switch on its own, we will launch negotiations with all Knesset factions in order to reach an agreed-upon date for elections.” 

Labor Knesset Member Ophir Pines does not rule out Saar’s early-elections initiative, explaining to Ma’ariv that “we can get a Knesset majority for moving up the elections.” However, in his opinion, the establishment of a new government led by Foreign Minister Tzippi Livni should also be considered. Labor Party Secretary General Eitan Kabel also offered cautious support: “I am in favor of moving up the elections. This step could pass in the Knesset. If the Winograd Committee report has force, this could also lead Kadima to support the project. But we need to wait for the Winograd Committee report.” Other Labor leaders are reportedly opposed to early elections. This camp reportedly includes Minister without portfolio Ami Ayalon, Education Minister Yuli Tamir, Minister of Science, Culture and Sport Ghaleb Majadele, and Social Affairs Minister Yitzhak Herzog.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak reportedly raised the idea of his party’s support for early elections with a number of other Labor leaders. Yet, Barak is playing this hand close to his chest. “We must study the report and then see what is the right thing to do,” he said on Thursday.

Peace Now Director General Yariv Oppenheimer believes that the Labor party should take advantage of Olmert’s vulnerability to push for genuine progress in the peace process. “In the current state of affairs, the removal of Olmert will bring about general elections, a paralysis of the political system for a period between half a year and a year, government instability and the halting of all processes that the government has been involved in for the past two years, especially Annapolis,” he writes in a blog featured by the Jerusalem Post.

“Even the most outspoken cynics and skeptics cannot ignore the fact that for the first time since 2000, there is direct dialogue and direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians,” continues Oppenheimer. “All three leaders - Bush, Olmert and Abbas - have made a commitment to the success of the process and the attainment of a permanent agreement within a year. The interruption of negotiations due to a governmental collapse would only play into the hands of the extremists on both sides and would put the nail in the coffin of Annapolis… There is no doubt that as a result of the improper and inexperienced actions of Olmert, many soldiers paid with their lives and the security of the country suffered severe damage. However, should Barak respond to the calls to leave the coalition after the Winograd Report is published, it will only play into the hands of the Israeli Right on the one hand, and of Hamas, on the other.” (Ma’ariv, 1/6 & 1/7/08; Israel Army Radio, 1/6/08; Haaretz, 1/4 & 1/7/08; Jerusalem Post, 1/3/08)