Saudi Arabia could keep the United States guessing until the last minute on whether it will attend a Middle East peace conference next week, but analysts and diplomats say a high-level delegation is unlikely.

Saudi Arabia -- a key U.S. ally whose presence would give a major boost to the U.S.-sponsored November 26-27 summit in Annapolis, Maryland -- has said it will attend only if core issues are tackled at the latest in a line of high-profile Arab-Israeli meetings dating back to Madrid in 1992.

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal declined to speak on the issue, telling reporters on Sunday: "The Arab countries will meet on November 22 and the Arab position will be fixed then." He was referring to an Arab foreign ministers meeting at the Arab League in Cairo.

In an effort to persuade Arab countries to attend, Israel said this week it would release Palestinian prisoners and pledge not to build new Jewish settlements.

Saudi Arabia, the birthplace of Islam whose oil wealth has made it a major diplomatic player, had specified a freeze on settlements as one core issue that could entice it to attend.

Arabs want the conference to deal with key issues that would lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state in territories seized by Israel in 1967, including East Jerusalem.

"Right now the position is Saudi Arabia is not attending, that's what it seems -- unless the Americans surprise us with a better agenda," said Jamal Khashoggi, editor of al-Watan daily, which is owned by a brother of the foreign minister.

"You cannot get an answer from any Saudi right now about whether we're going or not," Khashoggi said.

BRINKMANSHIP

Arab and Western diplomats said Saudi Arabia would dangle the prospect of going into the final hours before the summit.

Saudi Arabia has no diplomatic relations with Israel and even turning up at Annapolis could be seen as a concession in return for nothing.

"Up to now there is not enough to encourage Saudi Arabia to go. But if the United States presents an agenda that talks of solving the core issues then they could go," said Jamal al-Shobaki, the Palestinian ambassador in Riyadh.

He said the Saudi position was coordinated with the Palestinians, whose President Mahmoud Abbas was here last week.

Western diplomats said if last-minute horse-trading fails to entice it, Riyadh could send a low-level diplomatic delegation.

They said Riyadh fears that without clear results on a peace deal, the conference could play into the hands of Iran, whose growing regional influence has alarmed U.S. and Saudi leaders.

"People here would rather not see the conference take place than for it to happen and come to nothing. That would reinforce Iran and weaken Abbas," one diplomat said.

In Riyadh for an OPEC summit this week Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad attacked Arabs who attend.

"Those who plan to go there -- who will they represent? The people of Palestine have not given them permission to represent them," he told a news conference.

(Editing by Ralph Boulton)