The death of at least six people at a rally in Gaza organized by Fatah to mark the third anniversary of Yasser Arafat’s death is a black mark against Hamas. It could well prove fatal for the movement. There was no reason for Hamas security forces to open fire on the crowd — other than, of course, the fact they could not stomach the fact that hundreds of thousands of Palestinians had gathered in the center of Gaza, waving Fatah flags and carrying pictures of the late Palestinian leader. A more potent sign of Hamas losing the support of Gazans could hardly be imagined. A few months ago, a mass Fatah rally in Gaza would have been inconceivable. No one would have turned up — not merely out of fear of Hamas violence but because there was little support for Fatah.

A few days ago, the head of UNRWA, Karen Koning AbuZayd, said that the Israeli blockade of Gaza was fueling support for extremists there. Has the opposite happened? The fact that so many turned up to the rally suggests that Fatah has managed to reconnect with the people — and connect big time! Clearly, many Gazans have had enough of Hamas, no longer fear it and have forgiven Fatah for the corruption and arrogance that made them desert it at parliamentary elections last year. To turn up to a Fatah rally is a unmistakable show of support for it and its policies and a rejection of those of Hamas. The level of rejection is startling. To accuse Hamas of being in the pay of Iran, as demonstrators did — which apparently triggered the shooting — indicates real hatred. If Hamas imagines that shooting Palestinians will achieve their submission and loyalty, then it has forgotten Palestinian history. The Palestinians have endured too much oppression to be deterred by violence. They have not been intimidated by Israeli bullets; they will not be intimidated by Hamas bullets. Trying to terrorize them will backfire. These killings are bound to increase public resentment of Hamas.

A week ago, a senior Hamas official bragged that it would take over the West Bank if and when Israel pulled out. It was a foolish boast at the time; there is now no chance of it happening: Hamas does not have sufficient support in the West Bank. Now it certainly has even less. The big question now, then, is whether it can hold on to Gaza.

Ismail Haniyeh who heads the Hamas administration will certainly realize the damage his security men have done in killing Fatah supporters. He may also now realize how impotent and powerless he is, no more than the chief inmate in a prison, with no future while President Abbas spurns him. He may decide to finally give in, agreeing to fresh elections. But if he clings on, Fatah will move. It knows it now has mass support in Gaza. That support is going to grow the longer the blockade lasts and Israel is not going to lift it while Hamas remains in control. A showdown in Gaza is on the cards. Indeed it is a certainty. Even if Haniyeh were to go quietly, the Hamas gunmen will not.